The Autumn package (first part) is devoted to fiscal surveillance, namely:
- fiscal trajectories under the Mid-Term Fiscal Structural Plans – Preventive arm
- Watch at the net expenditure path and its impact on structural primary deficit and potential output. Cost of ageing is also relevant to assess long term sustainability.
- ETUC has strong critics on the methodology and indeed most of the countries advance counter arguments to deviate from the fiscal trajectories prosed by the EU Commission in July.
- Draft budgetary plans – Preventive arm
- Watch at the respect of the deficit and debt safeguards (1.5% GDP max of structural deficit, while reducing Debt at pace of at least 1pp or 0.5 pp of GDP).
- Compliance with fiscal objectives in the MTFSPs
- Excessive Deficit Procedure – Corrective arm
- Watch at the headline deficit above the 3% of GDP and Debt above 60%
- Watch at the activation of mitigation clause.
Other variables and issues of interest
- Public investment levels, not below the pre RRF levels
- Commitments and expenditure under the RRF
- Involvement of social partners
Access to key documents
2025 European Semester: bringing the new economic governance framework to life
2025 European Semester: Assessment of the medium-term fiscal-structural plans
2025 European Semester: Commission opinion on the draft budgetary plans
Full package accessible HERE: 2025 European Semester: Autumn package – European Commission