The Autumn package (first part) is devoted to fiscal surveillance, namely:

  • fiscal trajectories under the Mid-Term Fiscal Structural Plans – Preventive arm
    • Watch at the net expenditure path and its impact on structural primary deficit and potential output. Cost of ageing is also relevant to assess long term sustainability.
    • ETUC has strong critics on the methodology and indeed most of the countries advance counter arguments to deviate from the fiscal trajectories prosed by the EU Commission in July.
  • Draft budgetary plans – Preventive arm
    • Watch at the respect of the deficit and debt safeguards (1.5% GDP max of structural deficit, while reducing Debt at pace of at least 1pp or 0.5 pp of GDP).
    • Compliance with fiscal objectives in the MTFSPs
  • Excessive Deficit Procedure – Corrective arm
    • Watch at the headline deficit above the 3% of GDP and Debt above 60%
    • Watch at the activation of mitigation clause.

Other variables and issues of interest

  • Public investment levels, not below the pre RRF levels
  • Commitments and expenditure under the RRF
  • Involvement of social partners

Access to key documents

2025 European Semester: bringing the new economic governance framework to life

2025 European Semester: Assessment of the medium-term fiscal-structural plans

2025 European Semester: Commission opinion on the draft budgetary plans

Full package accessible HERE: 2025 European Semester: Autumn package – European Commission